Who Can You Believe These Days Regarding Commercial Real Estate?

Do newspapers, TV, and the media in general report what's REALLY going on in the news, specifically commercial real estate? It's hard to believe what you read some times when the authors of these newsworthy pieces are clearly misssing out on key signals and indicators that portend exactly the opposite of what they're saying.

Take today's story in the Las Vegas Review Journal, "Commercial real estate prices reaching one third 2007 levels". Here's a few talking points from the article:

• "I think we're pretty close to the bottom because once a bank gets a property back, you can't go any lower than that"
• "The most common trend in the industrial market continues to be the lasting expectation among buyers and tenants for reduced sales prices and lease rates"
• "Both residential and commercial transactions are slowly starting to pick up compared with the last couple of years"
• "The ones that take the jump now are poised to make the most profit when things turn around."
• "There continues to be strong demand for quality properties."
• "We're getting a lot of activity, which is going in the right direction"

Remember these comments were taken directly from a major media outlet, not from an agent's website or someone's real estate blog. Let's analyze each point a bit further:

"I think we're pretty close to the bottom because once a bank gets a property back, you can't go any lower than that" - Oh we can, and we will. If you think the commercial market is bad now, wait until the end of the year when the banks move from their current "denial" state into "acceptance" of the problem and start taking massive action to unload properties.

"The most common trend in the industrial market continues to be the lasting expectation among buyers and tenants for reduced sales prices and lease rates" - The most common trend is ALL of real estate is that the prices will continue to fall until job growth prospects get better. The focus should be on job creation - until that happens, the real estate market will continue to fall. And I don't see it happening (for real at least, although you can probably find examples of news articles massaging the facts to make it seem so in the short term.

"Both residential and commercial transactions are slowly starting to pick up compared with the last couple of years" - the key words here are "the last couple of years", which were lousy. Comparing something negative to something even more negative makes your negatively seem less negative.

"The ones that take the jump now are poised to make the most profit when things turn around." - this statement is the single-most exact reason people hate real estate agents. And for obvioius reasons. When Starbucks tells you their coffee is great, watch out.

"There continues to be strong demand for quality properties." - Strong demand? I don't see it. Maybe in other markets, but since this article was written for a Las Vegas paper, I'm assuming they're referencing the Las Vegas market, where the exact opposite seems to be the case. Just look around you if you're a local.

We're getting a lot of activity, which is going in the right direction" - Trust me, the only activity people are seeing are investors looking for an unrealistic "steal", then looking to steal the steal. There's certainly a lot of activity there.

Here's the tough love folks: if you're looking to invest in commercial real estate, take my advice and WAIT. WAIT WAIT WAIT. It's going to get worse short-term. There will be great opportunities for profits in the future and we're currently paving the ground with that at www.CommercialREOs.com, but only when the time is right. It's not now. Turn off the TV and stop reading the newspapers with all those stories written by those with agendas.