Main Stages of a Real Estate Bubble (With Specific Respect to Las Vegas High Rises)

I'd like to summarize an interesting article someone just emailed to me. Here's a timeline for the anatomy of the real estate mess we find ourselves in as a nation:

1. Take Off: 1998-1999
2. First Sell Off: 2000
3. Media Attention: 2001-2002
4. Enthusiasm: 2003
5. Greed: 2004-2005
6. Delusion: 2006
7. Denial: 2007
8. Fear: 2008
9. Capitulation: 2009-2010
10. Despair: 2011-2013
11. Return to the Mean: 2014

Sounds about right. Backed up by 500 years of economic history, the timeline applies pretty well to the current real estate bubble. In fact, 4 main stages can then be identified:

1) The Stealth Phase: With better access to information and a higher capacity to understand it, this is where the "smart money" gets in, often quietly and cautiously. As prices gradually increase, larger positions are established as the "smart money" insiders realize that the fundamentals are sound and they have a winner on their hands. The general population has no idea what's happening at this point.

2) The Awareness Phase: This is when investors start to figure it out and bring additional money that push prices higher and higher. You also see short-lived selling off periods as the "smart money" people cash in on their first profits and during each of these "sell offs", the smart money people take these opportunities to fortify their portfolios. They do this until the media gets involved and brainwashes the general public that they're just as sophisticated as the "smart money" group - which they're not and never will be.

3) The Mania Phase: Thanks to the lack of an unbiased opinions in the media, everyone seems to be making money in an "investment deal of a lifetime". Getting into the deal is a "no brainer" and future price increases are "guaranteed", which of course goes against all the laws of supply and demand. Money from all avenues gets pumped into the deal, often from those who can't afford to do so, as the "smart money" people are gradually pulling out and selling to these nouveau "sophisticated" investors. People see enormous paper profits and greed sets in, so everyone starts to use debt and leverage to bid up prices and jump into the deal, despite their lack of knowledge of market dynamics and fundamentals. The bubble is at its breaking point.

4) The Blow Off Stage: This happens when someone finally "gets it" and convinces everyone else at the same time that the situation has changed, often resulting in the classic "reality check". Many will try to reassure the public that it's just a temporary set back and that the naysayers don't know what they're talking about. The house of cards collapses and the late comers to the party (a.k.a. - the general public) are left with the bag while the original "smart money" has pulled out a long time ago. Prices plummet, over leveraged investors go bankrupt, people are afraid of making any types of investments, eventually resulting in a totally depressed market which many then consider "a significant buying opportunity". The problem now is that thanks to the media and the constant biased opinions they face each day, the general public now thinks of this opportunity as "the worst possible investment" which allows the "smart money" to once again acquire assets at bargain bottom prices.

The bottom line is if you've arrived late to the dance with the hope of getting something for nothing, bubbles can be very damaging. It helps to be in the "smart money" class. If you're not - and you know who you are - visit this website and register today