2010 Congressional Oversight Panel Report on Commercial Real Estate Losses and the Risk to Financial Stability

Nobody likes to read government documents and reports. It's probably because they're all long, boring, drawn-out with pages and pages of fluff information that no one cares about. However, in the case of the 2010 Congressional Oversight Panel Report, I started reading the document, and I must say, the information contained is just plain shocking!

You thought it was bad now, their take on the commercial real estate marketing is downright frightening (and if history is any indication, usually correct!). Download the report (it's 190 pages!), but just read the Executive Summary. And make sure you're sitting down. Here's my favorite paragraph:

Between 2010 and 2014, about $1.4 trillion in commercial real estate loans will reach the end of their terms. Nearly half are at present “underwater” – that is, the borrower owes more than the underlying property is currently worth. Commercial property values have fallen more than 40 percent since the beginning of 2007. Increased vacancy rates, which now range from eight percent for multifamily housing to 18 percent for office buildings, and falling rents, which have declined 40 percent for office space and 33 percent for retail space, have exerted a powerful downward pressure on the value of commercial properties.

The largest commercial real estate loan losses are projected for 2011 and beyond; losses at banks alone could range as high as $200-$300 billion. The stress tests conducted last year for 19 major financial institutions examined their capital reserves only through the end of 2010. Even more significantly, small and mid-sized banks were never subjected to any exercise comparable to the stress tests, despite the fact that small and mid-sized banks are proportionately even more exposed than their larger counterparts to commercial real estate loan losses.

Put on your seat belt and get ready for an interesting 5 years regarding commercial foreclosures and commercial REOs. If you're direct to a lender or direct to an investment group, contact us at www.CommercialREOs.com and at least register on the site so when the time's right, perhaps we can make lemonade out of lemons.

Commercial Real Estate Key to Success

I am currently reading the Emerging Trends Real Estate 2010 report and happened upon this quote to start the Second Chapter of the document:

“The key to success in real estate investing is to follow the capital flows, not the fundamentals. Anticipate what capital wants and be there.”

This is a must-read report for anyone in the commercial real estate world or just anyone looking for knowledge on where the industry has been and where it is going. You can download the report on the homepage at the www.CommercialREOs.com website.

According to the report:

Slowly, capital will flow back into commercial real estate markets during 2010, led by all-cash investors “looking for pop” in quality assets owned by distressed borrowers or sold by lenders out of growing REO portfolios.

... a very interesting read indeed

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Real Estate Investments for those in the Horse Racing Industry? Here's the Resource

Two days ago, we published www.HorseRacingLuxuryRealEstate.com on behalf of a colleague of ours named Allan Herman.

Allan's a big horseracing fan and has been specializing in luxury real estate in Las Vegas for quite some time now. The website allows him to combine two of his biggest passions: the horse racing industry and luxury real estate.

Besides what you'd normally expect to see at a typical real estate website, we've implemented a LIVE Broadcast capability where Allan will be hosting weekly live streaming video sessions talking about not only what's been going on in the horseracing industry, but what's new in the luxury real estate market as well.

These shows have the capability of being archived as well as customizible branding for advertising - basically turning an advertising expense into another revenue stream for the show host.

You don't have to be from Las Vegas to take advantage of the resources this website provides. Nor do you have to be a horse breeder, horse trainer, jockey, or horse owner for that matter... but it sure does help if you are!

Please stop by the site, take a look, and give us your feedback on what you think. If you'd like to add live broadcasting capability to your site, please visit www.VegasVideoMarketing.com for further details. Sign up for an account, then contact us at info@videoemailresults.com and we'll do all the work for you.

Text Message Marketing Provides Opportunity for Luxury Real Estate Agents

As many of you already know, awhile back I started a text message marketing company called Gotta Go Text (www.G2GText.com). In case you don't already realize it, the text marketing industry is growing exponentially every day, as is G2G. One only has to point to the success of the donation program to the victims of the Haiti earthquake devastation to see how text messaging is the next big new thing. (Text "HAITI" to 90999 to donate $10 to the Red Cross)

We'll... we've taken the text message concept to the Golf Course industry at www.G2GGolf.com with phenomenal success so far. If you would like to see it in action for yourself, just text "GOLF" on your cell phone to 69302 and you'll get an immediate indication.

So what does that mean to you, the real estate agent? We've also partnered with Never Search for golf in providing golfers with a fully customized golf trip planning software including links to nearby restaurants, driving ranges, courses, related sites of interest, and get this - LUXURY GOLF COURSE REAL ESTATE!

The Never Search Golf database is national and we've already been getting requests for information from golfers as to vacation homes at golf course destinations around the United States. My question to you seasoned real estate agents reading this blog post is this: Are you a luxury residential agent who can provide services to golfers looking to purchase real estate in your area?

If so, we'll provide you the lead from the contacts we get at www.G2GGolf.com in return for a 25% referral fee payable upon a closed deal. Interested? Contact me at ron@gottagotext.com and especially let me know the area of the US that you specialize in.

Las Vegas Project CityCenter Making News With Grand Opening This Week - But Many Questions Remain

Bet you're wondering why I don't update this blog very often any more, right? Well, the truth is there really isn't any good news arising from the Las Vegas high rise condo market these days. That's about to come to an end however now that MGM Grand's Project CityCenter will be opening its doors this week to a long awaited and skeptical crowd.

In fact, there's a very interesting article in yesterday's Las Vegas Review Journal that goes over City Center in great detail which anyone interested in the high rise market should read. For the most part, the article portrays a rosy future for this mega-project. However, myself (and a whole bunch of other readers - read the comments section at the end of the article for some REAL insights into this project) think there are big hurdles to scale before anyone can think CityCenter will be a success. Questions such as the following:

1) How's it going to pay for itself? How can they possibly get the ROI needed to keep this city within a city thriving? 8 BILLION dollars is a lot of money!

2) Who's going to play there? Certainly not the locals. Are there enough rich sultans in the world willing to visit, gamble, spend, eat, drink, etc. at CityCenter at the expense of Wynn and his casinos? I can see CityCenter packing them in for the first few months or so - and I myself can't wait to go and see it (and maybe even play a little $5 blackjack? - doubtful) - but after that when the luster's worn off, then what's going to happen? Ask the people over at the M Resort about that. That project was amazingly "successful" for the first few months. Now people leave that place faster than Tiger Woods drives his car out of his garage.

3) How will the condo portion of the project effect the market? Even while CityCenter slashed condo prices supposedly 30%, when you consider what's going on in the market, who'll buy them? Add the HOA fees and you probably have to be a partner in MGM somehow just to afford the payment plus mortgage. That is, if you can even get a mortgage! Since banks aren't lending on condos, pretty much any deal has to be all cash. Are there enough rich people overseas that will plunk down that kind of money for something they'll maybe visit twice a year?

4) Has anyone given any thought of the traffic nightmares this development presents on an already crowded intersection? Who's going to put themselves through all that on a consistent basis? Traffic and parking issues believe it or not are the single biggest predictor of whether or not a retail business survives. This is a serious point that everyone in the media seems to be overlooking.

5) Can bankruptcy be far behind? And if so, will MGM CEO Jim Murren still be considered the forward thinking poster child genious he's portrayed to be in another article regarding CityCenter published in the Las Vegas Sun? (read the comments on that story too!). Here's one of my pet peeves regarding the media: mixing news with promotion. According to the article, "Murren never doubted the success of CityCenter. It was right for the company, right for Las Vegas", spoken as if the project was already successful. It's not successful - yet. I'm from Vegas and plan on being here for years. I want this project to work, but let's hold judgment on whether it's a success or not until after it opens, okay?

And speaking of which, you may want to brave the traffic for just one night tomorrow (Tuesday, December 1st) when the Vdara opens its doors. Then go again on Thursday when the Crystals retail district opens within the development. The Mandarin Oriental is scheduled to open on Saturday. Shortly after that, the Aria hotel casino opens on December 16th, followed by the Veer Towers opening in January 2010.

I can't wait to see the development myself. I love the way it looks - CityCenter in my opinion is absolutely gorgeous! But like a traffic accident, it's more like it's drawing my interest and curiosity more than being a destination I'll consistently go to. Perhaps I'll be wrong about that, but I am looking forward to the openings. I have a feeling I'm a lot like the average person in that respect. You'll go to CityCenter once, check it all out, maybe play a few hands of blackjack or craps (with a $25 minimum), walk through the shopping areas (while not buying anything), order a $18 martini (just to say you had one), wait forever to get your car, and drive back home.

Then like Kaiser Soze, my guess is CityCenter will never see you again.

Text Message Marketing is the Future in Real Estate and Beyond

The ability to spot trends has always been a valuable asset in any real estate agent's arsenal. In fact, trendspotting serves most people well in just about any industry. Sometimes, you get that "ah ha!" moment when it finally hits you and you say to yourself "this could be big!".

That is exactly what happened to me when I first discovered the power of text message marketing months back. I saw it as a way to communicate instantly with potential clients in an environment with a 95% read rate. Think about it... who doesn't read their text messages? I've been successfully text message advertising since then.

But I wanted to create a brand that I could bring to the forefront of the market to allow others to easily use this technology as well. I've literally spent the last 5 months developing a text message platform for retail use, and this morning (9/9/09) at 9:09am, we launched the product at http://www.GottaGoText.com.

Hence, we're very proud to bring you the most sophisticated text message marketing system available today - AND making it affordable for small business use. (especially for real estate agents!)

No more empty "Take One" sheets at houses that are for sale. Instead, have a sign asking the potential buyer to text a certain keyword (HOUSE) to our shortcode (69302) for instant information on the house they're looking at. (Plus you help save the planet without the use of tradition paper that ends up somewhere on the street most of the time).

Now you've captured that prospect's contact info where you can alert them to your new listings, open houses, special deals, foreclosure opportunities, or just about anything you can imagine at a simple click of the button for immediate feedback. Gotta Go Text is browser based, so you can create, send, and manage your contacts and text messages from anywhere in the world at any time. I'm sure you can see how you can develop a strong contact database in a very short period of time by text message marketing with G2G.

In short, texting facilitates sales. And if you think it's all overwhelming, I'm here to help you out every step of the way regarding how to use the system, create keywords, manage your database, and send out messages.

For the time being, I'm offering a FREE trial of this product at our website at http://www.GottaGoText.com. I'm also looking for affiliates to help me bring this brand to the forefront of the industry. Signup for the trial, create an account and give it a test drive. Then, if you like it, the basic cost is $50/month along with 7 cents charge per outgoing text message. There are no contracts to sign and you can cancel without penalty at any time.

This is not just for real estate agents - bars, restaurants, promoters, churches, schools, musicians, etc... all can find a unique use for text message marketing.

Download the promotional flyer here - and remember: When you want to skyrocket your response rates and grow your business, ya Gotta Go Text!

Using G2G will show you EXACTLY how powerful mobile marketing really is!!!

Investment Real Estate Webinar Almost a Sell-Out - Learn How to Pay No Taxes for 2009

Disillusioned with the Las Vegas high rise condo market? Fed up with Las Vegas real estate in general? Looking for cash flowing real estate with tremendous tax benefits? I'm sure the answer to that question is a resounding yes!

Many of you who follow and/or subscribe to this blog know I've been a proponent of GO Zone investing since the IRS sponsored program came out in 2005. Our latest buying event was a huge success as the entire Tara Brooke development project just about sold out as a result.

Many of the buyers on the call will now Legally be Paying NO Federal Income Tax in 2009! If you missed it and you'd like to learn more about why GO Zone investing blows away anything Las Vegas ever had, you can listen to a recording of the conference call by clicking here. You can also reserve a unit on that webpage using the Discount Code: "COSTA"

Time is absolutely of the essence here, because in order to have the home completed by the end of the year to qualify for the GO-Zone tax benefits, you need to reserve right away. There is only a fleeing moment of time while this tax benefit still exists and then it will be gone forever.

There still are a few units left, so listen to the archived conference call and reserve your unit today

Jewelry hub won’t adorn Symphony Park soon

From today's Las Vegas Sun:

Plans to build a key world jewelry industry hub in downtown’s Symphony Park will take years longer than originally planned. At today’s Las Vegas City Council meeting, the city and the World Jewelry Center’s Beverly Hills-based developer are set to amend their agreement to give the center six more years to fulfill its original plans — including the option to scale them back.

If this project ever happens, what a much-needed boom this would be to Las Vegas in general, and downtown in particular.