Main Stages of a Real Estate Bubble (With Specific Respect to Las Vegas High Rises)

I'd like to summarize an interesting article someone just emailed to me. Here's a timeline for the anatomy of the real estate mess we find ourselves in as a nation:

1. Take Off: 1998-1999
2. First Sell Off: 2000
3. Media Attention: 2001-2002
4. Enthusiasm: 2003
5. Greed: 2004-2005
6. Delusion: 2006
7. Denial: 2007
8. Fear: 2008
9. Capitulation: 2009-2010
10. Despair: 2011-2013
11. Return to the Mean: 2014

Sounds about right. Backed up by 500 years of economic history, the timeline applies pretty well to the current real estate bubble. In fact, 4 main stages can then be identified:

1) The Stealth Phase: With better access to information and a higher capacity to understand it, this is where the "smart money" gets in, often quietly and cautiously. As prices gradually increase, larger positions are established as the "smart money" insiders realize that the fundamentals are sound and they have a winner on their hands. The general population has no idea what's happening at this point.

2) The Awareness Phase: This is when investors start to figure it out and bring additional money that push prices higher and higher. You also see short-lived selling off periods as the "smart money" people cash in on their first profits and during each of these "sell offs", the smart money people take these opportunities to fortify their portfolios. They do this until the media gets involved and brainwashes the general public that they're just as sophisticated as the "smart money" group - which they're not and never will be.

3) The Mania Phase: Thanks to the lack of an unbiased opinions in the media, everyone seems to be making money in an "investment deal of a lifetime". Getting into the deal is a "no brainer" and future price increases are "guaranteed", which of course goes against all the laws of supply and demand. Money from all avenues gets pumped into the deal, often from those who can't afford to do so, as the "smart money" people are gradually pulling out and selling to these nouveau "sophisticated" investors. People see enormous paper profits and greed sets in, so everyone starts to use debt and leverage to bid up prices and jump into the deal, despite their lack of knowledge of market dynamics and fundamentals. The bubble is at its breaking point.

4) The Blow Off Stage: This happens when someone finally "gets it" and convinces everyone else at the same time that the situation has changed, often resulting in the classic "reality check". Many will try to reassure the public that it's just a temporary set back and that the naysayers don't know what they're talking about. The house of cards collapses and the late comers to the party (a.k.a. - the general public) are left with the bag while the original "smart money" has pulled out a long time ago. Prices plummet, over leveraged investors go bankrupt, people are afraid of making any types of investments, eventually resulting in a totally depressed market which many then consider "a significant buying opportunity". The problem now is that thanks to the media and the constant biased opinions they face each day, the general public now thinks of this opportunity as "the worst possible investment" which allows the "smart money" to once again acquire assets at bargain bottom prices.

The bottom line is if you've arrived late to the dance with the hope of getting something for nothing, bubbles can be very damaging. It helps to be in the "smart money" class. If you're not - and you know who you are - visit this website and register today

ATTN Seasoned Real Estate Developers and Texas Real Estate Land Investors

How is this blog post related to Las Vegas high rise condos? It really isn't, except that one of our clients (a Las Vegas high rise condo purchaser from Texas), just made me aware of a very interesting development opportunity in the Dallas Fort Worth area of Texas and wanted me to send out some feelers with the hopes that a seasoned real estate developer or serious land investor may read this post and see a fit.

It's a 200 acre parcel of land in an amazing location just waiting for the right developer. And it's priced right as well. You can view the details at www.dfwtexasland.com

Brokers are welcome on this project, so if you are looking for a Land Development Opportunity in the Dallas Forth-Worth area of Texas, then you need to look at this 200 acre parcel situated in close proximity to the Dallas Forth Worth Airport and adjacent to major highways -- A Texas land developer's dream!

Call Frank toll free at 866-363-4657 for info or send an email here.

Everyone's To Blame for Failure of Las Vegas ManhattanWest Condo Project

What happens when you let a software engineer develop a high profile Las Vegas condo project? You end up with a non-completed mid-rise eyesore where the developer faces more than $30 million dollars in liens attached to his Las Vegas condo development.

Now developer and former computer dot-commer Alex Edelstein says he's looking for investors to help him finish the job. His lien holders, however, say he's no where to be found and won't return phone calls. There's nothing worse than a developer who doesn't know how to develop and that seems to be the case with the ManhattanWest project.

But Edelstein surely isn't the only one to blame for this yet another Las Vegas condo fiasco. It seems construction issues had become quite severe during the entire build - and no one caught them until ManhattanWest's project manager finally started to investigate, finding some 58 building code violations that hadn't been resolved in over 18 months!

With faulty structural concrete and an inadequate fire safety system that was installed by unlicensed subcontractors that did not meet code requirements, Manhattan West turned to E&E Fire Protection who then saw an easy score and (rather than make some modifications) decided to replace the entire system and is now owed about $3 million.

Then there's Hydro Pressure Cleaning, a company that charged the project $500,000 for seismic repair on concrete columns. $500,000 for a third party construction service!!!

And by the way, where were the Clark County building inspectors during all these violations? How could the project have come this far to begin with?

Now I don't blame Edelstein for not paying for sub-standard work or excessive bills, but it seems to me he should have performed a complete audit on what was going on with his development - a process that all the big timers do all the time.

With this kind of followup, I'm afraid it's going to be difficult for him to find the "bona fide" investors he's looking for to bring real offers to the table and get the money needed for project completion. I'm reminded of OJ looking for the "real killers"...

If you're one of those high rise condo or mid rise condo investors who bought into this ManhattanWest project (or the original Manhattan Project on the South Strip for that matter), please contact me for a special investment update. (name and phone number please)

Competition Non-Existant at the 2009 REMAX Convention for Las Vegas Real Estate and High Rise Condos

To put it mildly, I'm simply amazed! I know times are tough and all - and many real estate companies are struggling just to stay in business. But how amazing is it that our office is the ONLY Las Vegas real estate brokerage exhibiting at this year's REMAX Internation Convention?

And for those of you who aren't aware, the conference is actually being held... IN LAS VEGAS!!! It's not like other offices had to even travel to get here. Like I said, I'm just amazed. Not disappointed, mind you, because although attendance at this year's event is noticeably down, the people who've stopped by our booth to talk to us and the connections our office has already made at this event has been outstanding.

People have actually stopped by asking about referring clients to us who are interested in buying Las Vegas real estate. We've gotten inquiries on Las Vegas foreclosure bargains, Las Vegas investment properties, and - believe it or not - Las Vegas high rise condos. It's nice to be the only game in town (or at least at the MGM Convention Center for 4 days!!!)

In fact, an agent in our office just set an appointment this afternoon to tour Turnberry with a perspective high rise condo client who just visited our booth this morning. Yesterday alone, we added about 50 people to our investor database and one agent got a lead on a institutional buyer for a 12 million dollar land deal.

I wonder how many of these potential clients we would have received if we had any competition at the show. Viva la recessionne!

REMAX Convention Is Next Week at the MGM Grand - And We're Exhibiting at the Show!

The 2009 RE/MAX International Convention will be held next week at the MGM Grand Convention Center from Monday, March 2nd through Thursday, March 5th. Our office will be exhibiting at the event to talk to agents and customers about Las Vegas high rise condos, foreclosure investing, cash flowing commercial investment opportunities and the Las Vegas real estate marketplace in general.

In addition, we'll be doing interviews at the show for inclusion on the Vegas Convention Videos website, which showcases videos taken at various conventions and tradeshows to a targeted audience based on a variety of specific keywords. Visit www.vegasconventionvideos.com for more information on a very useful (and free) resource.

If you're attending the show, contact me and let me know - and perhaps we can get you on video to talk about your company, products, and services.

Video Showcases Las Vegas Luxury High Rise Living in Park Towers and More

Here's a video we just created last night with a very strong agent in my office, Robert Sibulkin. This video was shot at Park Towers, an extremely exclusive high rise located at the Howard Hughes Business Center, and the unit is on the market for just over $3 million dollars. Watch the video with the great Las Vegas Strip views in the background and you'll get an idea what Las Vegas high rise living is all about!

Are you ready to reap the benefits of all your hard work and start living the Las Vegas high rise lifestyle in complete and total luxury? Perhaps this unit is for you. If you're a high net worth individual, we'll show you a whole new world if you contact us today.

January Indices Illustrate Tough Times Still Ahead for Las Vegas High Rise Condo Market and Las Vegas Real Estate in General

The Center for Business and Economic Research at UNLV has just released their January Indices and - as you probably would guess - the numbers are not good.

Summarizing the Southern Nevada Index of Leading Economic Indicators:

"The Index of Leading Indicators continues to decline. Not since the aftermath of 9/11 has there been as sharp as this one-month decline. The fall out of the September failure of Lehman Brothers continues to show across the U.S., including Nevada, which some once thought was immune to such national economic events. It is highly likely that we may see a few more months of difficulty before things get better."

Regarding the CBER Clark County Business-Activity Index:

"The Business-Activity Index posted yet another month of decline for November 2008, dropping 5.74 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis. October and November have seen the largest declines over the past year. The fourth quarter of 2008 and the first quarter of 2009 are likely to be the weakest performing period in the current recession, which, if it expends to midyear 2009, will be the longest recession since the 1930s. It is fair to say that the severity of the current recession is likely to last longer and to match the loss of jobs of the most severe downturns in the post-WWII period. Moreover, the longer we get into 2009 the greater the likelihood of hearing more optimistic economic news"

For the CBER Clark County Tourism Index:

"The November 2008 Tourism Index stands 13.53 percent below the index value for the same month a year ago. Gaming revenue also fell to the lowest level since July 2004 and to the lowest revenues for November since 2003. Occupancy rates reached 79.2 percent, the lowest level since December of 2004. The poor performance of Clark County tourism is consistent with our knowledge of consumer spending in a recession. Consumers facing economic hardship and expecting further economic decline cut back on big-ticket items, such as cars and furniture, and discretionary spending, such as travel and holidays. Businesses also cut back spending on conferences, sales meetings, and other travel."

And lastly, the CBER Clark County Construction Index:

"The CBER Construction Index fell to 97.84 for November 2008, the lowest level since 1995. With a large surplus of empty housing units and falling job numbers, prospects for selling new homes remain dim, resulting in a marked decline in permitting. You have to go back to December 1981, however, to find one-month permitting numbers that are less than the recent numbers. Not surprisingly, weak prospects for all types of construction have brought few new projects, cutting construction jobs in Clark by near 11 thousand over the past year."

All of this translates into challenging times ahead for 2009. But remember this: great fortunes are made in down markets. That's a fact you don't see mentioned in this research report or reported ANYWHERE in the mainstream media. Believe it - it could be you!

Elvis, Liberace, and the Condo Hotel Concept are all Dead in Las Vegas as High Rise Rentals Quickly Becoming New Trend

High rise condo hotel developers are painfully finding out what the whole Las Vegas high rise market knows already: the condo hotel concept is dead in this town right now. Between what prices for these units began at and the tightening of the credit markets which make financing them almost an impossible task, high rise condo hotel developers need to start thinking out-of-the-box to avoid having their towers sit empty for a long, long time.

As such, some (such as Trump) are beginning to rent their unsellable units instead, which is a pretty smart move rather than have to admit the project's been a dog for quite some time now. Many others will follow this new trend - including (I predict), CityCenter. There's no other choice since anyone closing on any condo hotel contracted out during the "high rise frenzy years" will find themselves upside down as soon as they sign the closing papers. That's why you see so many would-be buyers just walking away from their 6-figure deposit monies.

Many real estate companies are noticing this trend as well and are re-creating themselves as rental companies as well - another smart move since that's where the business will be. The key here is being proactive. And many are taking strong bold moves to move forward in a positive light despite what has happened and what may be in store in the short-term future.

You try..., you fail..., you learn... you try again... It's the winners in lfe that move forward while other's wail in depression and think of what may have been. Perhaps in today's economonic climate, you need to think of alternative, recession-proof opportunities, that are out of the mainstream investing and aren't correlated to the volatililty of the stock market and real estate...

Las Vegas High Rise Condo Fire Sale - Must Sell!

For those of you high rise condo buyers who've sat on the sidelines all this time, your ship has come in. We now have access to - approved directly by the developer - high rise condo bargains one block off the Las Vegas Strip available to you right now at over 50% OFF the original price.

These units have never been lived in before, are drop dead gorgeous, and are ready for immediate move-in and purchase. Here's the types of Vegas high rise condo bargains you can take advantage of right now (which are available at the crazy price of approximately $277 per square foot average):

WAS $395,000... NOW $176,000
WAS $700,000... NOW $354,000
WAS $570,000... NOW $289,000
WAS $300,000... NOW $152,000
WAS $250,000... NOW $126,500
WAS $900,000... NOW $460,000

And these are just examples of a few condo bargains. There are more than 200 more in inventory!!! We need to move these units quickly, so if you'd like to take advantage of this Las Vegas high rise condo fire sale, email us here (you MUST include your name and phone number) or call 702-499-0432 for more details. Serious condo bargain seekers only please - there's plenty more where this came from.

... You've found your high rise condo bargain source - and if you're a non-high rise foreclosure bargain hunter, don't forget to check out our Las Vegas foreclosure deals website as well.

Las Vegas Real Estate Market Preview: January 29th is Depression Day - Unless...

I noticed that the Las Vegas Chamber of Commerce is once again presenting "Preview 2009" to be held Thursday, January 29th at the Thomas and Mack Center. Tickets start at $60 for Chamber members and $80 otherwise. But let me save you some money and just tell you what you'll hear at the event.

The economy is bad... really bad. Traffic counts at McCarren Airport are down to very low levels.... Construction startups are down.... Resort occupancy is a fraction of what is was 2 years ago.... Unless you're working real estate foreclosures, nothing's selling in the residential market and the commercial market's going to be hit hard this year as well... Office leasing space is a joke... The high rise market is completely dead (except for one project)... Developments have come to a standstill and many have been cancelled due to the economy... In other words: Nothing's going well right now.

Then, each presenter will talk about how "the future does look bright if we can just weather the storm for now." Ladies and gentlemen, start your networking!

Do you really need to pay to hear this? Aren't you depressed enough already? If you're into networking on an entirely superficial level, then by all means attend this event. I went last year and quite frankly, the 2 best contacts I made while I was there was in the parking lot before I even bought my ticket!

For me, there's only one solution right now - that's to work with those people who know how to invest like the top CPA's and attorneys invest. The group I've aligned myself with are providing their clients with recession proof investments that have stood the test of time during this entire down market. Their clients are happy and haven't been effected by the vagrancies of the real estate and stock markets - and they're getting returns on their investments that most investors could only dream of even when the market was peaking.

You don't need to go to a preview event to know what's in store for most people. The question is, will you separate yourself from the masses who are just sitting on the sidelines waiting for something good to happen before they get back into the game... If yes, then click here and register. If not, well... enjoy your depression.